The whole world stock market bounces back above 30%, the financial organ profit rise, some banks also restore the release long-term bond. Next, the economic stimulus plan is gradually effective, the developed country entity economy and the expense anticipated present the change for the better. Worldwide scale’s PMI the index, the service industry index, as well as the consumer confidence index and so on each economical advance target and so on maintains in abundance the upward tendency, various countries industrial production also presents the rise. G20, G8, OECD and so on International organization as well as the US-Japanese-European Government announced in abundance the economy will touch the bottom, the appearance the part recovery phenomenon.
Third, the money market becomes stable, the fluidity to be sufficient, the trade financing condition will be the alleviation greatly. The whole world money market is recovering gradually. Various countries’ government large decline interest rate, thus reduced many loan costs. Earlier this year, various countries leader was the pledge in the next two years guaranteed that 250,000,000,000 US dollars use in trade financing.

International trade financing presents the rise, without doubt is an omni-directional advantage good sign. Fourth, the US and so on stock reaches the last act, some professions and the enterprise start to increase the stock and the order form. Fifth, trade price in rise. According to the Dutch Economic policy Analysis Agency data, in 2008 in the fourth quarter and in 2009 the first quarter, the world trade price drops 14.
2% separately and 4.8%, to this year March and April, the global trade price rose again 0.8% and 0.3%.

The commodity price will rise again in the near future has reflected market factors and so on mood improvement, US dollar depreciation. WTO forecast that in 2009 the global volume of trade drops the 10%, IMF newest forecast to drop the 12.2%, OECD forecast to drop 13%, the Dutch Economic policy Analysis Agency forecast drops 16%. Considered the international volume of trade falls suddenly continuously, already greatly surpassed the real demand the drop, completes close along with the stock, the international volume of trade after the trough will stand firmly rises again, estimated that in the second half of the year the world trade will fall excessively will squeeze, certain months will appear are growing. Synthesizes various aspects to forecast that we thought the world volume of trade range of fall will squeeze this year to 15% about. The world trade will follow entire world economics to experience 3~5 year low speed regulatory period.
First, world economics slow recovery restriction international trade swift growth. In the near future the developed country economy return to warmer weather, will benefit from the large-scale economic stimulus plan.

Looking from the more reliable 3 month moving average, up to April’s 3 months, the international trade link ratio drops 6%, but the first 3 months (up to January, 2009) the range of fall are 12.3%. But looked compared to the same period from the data that the international trade still in the trough movement, in April the international volume of trade compared to the same period range of fall reached as high as 20%. Next, the international trade advance target presents the return to warmer weather. First, the bulk commodity trade price touches the bottom rise.
The oil price past 3 months rose above 75%, once broke through 70 US dollars/barrels. On May 29, CRB the bulk commodity price index rose 18.3% compared to the end of February.

In the excellent SPGSCI bulk commodity price index 3 months rose 22%, the energy price index rose 29%. Second, international shipping market return to warmer weather. In June, international trade leading target Baltic Sea does the bulk cargo index 5 months to rise 6 times, creates 8 month new high. The American container harbor’s container quantity already increased, the Asian harbor’s volume of goods handled also announced the good data, the container market has possibly touched the bottom.
Also, the export confidence as well as the export new order form starts to rise again. Reflected that the exporter confidence Hong Kong TDC exports the index, already 22.3 and the first quarter 25.8 rose again from the fourth quarter of last year to the second quarter 42.

Climbed to past one year maximum level. The exporter will start to receive the order form booming one after another in the near future, the export is improved obviously. In June the CFLP China newly the export order index to climb to 51.4%, is higher than May 50.1%, is 13 month maximum levels, indicated that the export condition link compares changes for the better gradually. In the second half of the year world trade stepwise regression fundamental plane Reporter: Asks you to predict that in the near future how the world trade will develop Prince first: It is estimated that in the second half of the year the world trade will experience the range of fall to squeezeThe bounce to become stable largelyThe reappearance the dynamic path which grows, certain months will possibly appear are growing. The world trade worst stage already passed, in the second half of the year the world trade range of fall will squeeze largely. First, the panic mood subsides basically, the global economic confidence starts to the habit and the positive direction return.

The stock is also very big to international trade’s influence. 1~ in April, the beautiful commercial stock link compares drops 1.4% separately, 1.3%, 1.1% and 1.1%. since February, 2009 US has kept in stock sets the record of July’s, 1997 new low. Because the global trade concentrates excessively much in the consumer durable goods, the durable goods stock situation is more obvious, in March and April, 2009 US durable goods wholesale stock drops 2.

6% separately and 2.2%, furniture and electronic products stock remarkable reduction. Global integration supply chain starting chain-like enlargement response. The current global 40% above industrial product production and marketing and the interstate supply chain are related, in the Asian area the half-finished product trade approximately composes the product trade flow 70%, a product global supply chain often involves the numerous countries. The integrated supply chain has the demand variation enlargement the bull’s penis effect, the final recession in demand will often cause the entire supply chain to receive attacks enlarges doubled and re-doubled, the upstream and downstream product as well as the related economy will be under the association impact. The IMF investigation discovery, 11% participants believed that the financial crisis increased the whole world trade risks level, causes the trade to drop fiercely. In brief, the international trade play falls has the recession in demand factor, but also has the exterior trade environment particularly finance environment serious worsening reason. Under the financial crisis impact, causes panic the short-term factor possibly accounts for the very great proportion, intensified the international trade range of fall greatly.

The world trade fell anxiously the basic conclusion Reporter: Follows the world economics to stand firmly the bounce, specially along with the stock, goes panic to be near the end, current, whether we can think the world trade fell anxiously had ended basically Prince first: Yes. The world trade falls anxiously had ended basically, gradually to fundamental plane returns and so on investment and consumer demand, one, second quarter world trade will pelt 30%~40% aspects not to continue again this year. First, the global volume of trade range of fall has postpones. According to the Dutch Economic policy Analysis Agency international trade monitor data, in November, 2008, in December and in January, 2009 international volume of trade link reaches 6% equally compared to the range of fall, since has been in 1991 has the data the unprecedented range of fall.
in February, 2009, in March, in April, the international volume of trade respectively grows 0.3% be the link ratio, to drop 0.4% and to drop 0.6%, was already continual 3 month ranges of fall to be lower than 1% absolutely.

The investor hope, the past 5 years in the national congress party (Congress party) led in the Coalition government tenure in office suffered the placement a series of reforms, now can obtain the advancement, some could first in 100 days realize in new government being in power. The new government already proposed in Upper House permission more foreign direct investments enter the insurance business the bill.
Once enters Low House to discuss, this bill will pass will be smoother. Simultaneously proposes also has an item of banking supervision bill for amendment, the permission are more private sector participation banking industry; A superannuation fund supervision and the development organization bill, is for the purpose of establishing one to supervise the organization in the superannuation fund profession advancement reform. whether does the government succeed completes these reforms to be very important to the investor mood, excellent (Goldman Sachs) economist Berdahl (Tushar Poddar) wrote in a related election’s report. Indian latent scale big privatization plan interrupt, is also put the blame on the left wing ideology opposition.